Bitcoin continues to rise in the face of all challenges: Contentious hard forks, government intervention, mindless attacks... and stagnant transaction volume. I don't hear many people talk about this - the fact that the rolling daily transaction volume for Bitcoin hasn't done diddly squat over the past year, yet price has gone up 900%.
If there is ONE fundamental metric we can all agree upon for Bitcoin, it is the number of transactions completed using the cryptocurrency. Yet we remain at approximately 250 - 350k transactions a day, while Paypal averaged approximately 21 million transactions a day in Q3'17. It's even worse when you consider the fact that transactions between exchanges (not inside) are included, which I don't really consider "adoption."
Yet despite this, Bitcoin continues to skyrocket. The best argument out there is that Bitcoin is stealing part of gold's market share as a store of value, and given that gold is over a $7T market, Bitcoin is still peanuts compared to the size it could grow to. However, when I hear most people talk about Bitcoin, they talk about how it will replace governments, take over banks and revolution P2P transactions - all of which require a SUBSTANTIAL increase in transaction volume.
I argue Bitcoin continues to rise for these reasons:
1) FOMO Investing
2) Incremental Value created by news event due to inability or lack of skill for finding a fair value for Bitcoin to converge to by most market participants
3) Price Memory
4) Increased market share for "store of value"
What are your thoughts? I'd love to hear them in the comments.
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